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As the major form of coral reef regime shift, stony coral to macroalgal transitions have received considerable attention. In the Caribbean, however, regime shifts in which scleractinian corals are replaced by octocoral assemblages hold potential for maintaining reef associated communities. Accordingly, forecasting the resilience of octocoral assemblages to future disturbance regimes is necessary to understand these assemblages' capacity to maintain reef biodiversity. We parameterised integral projection models quantifying the survival, growth, and recruitment of the octocorals,Antillogorgia americana,Gorgonia ventalina, andEunicea flexuosa,in St John, US Virgin Islands, before, during, and after severe hurricane disturbance. Using these models, we forecast the density of populations of each species under varying future hurricane regimes. We demonstrate that although hurricanes reduce population growth,A. americana,G. ventalina, andE. flexuosaeach display a capacity for quick recovery following storm disturbance. Despite this recovery potential, we illustrate how the population dynamics of each species correspond with a longer-term decline in their population densities. Despite their resilience to periodic physical disturbance events, ongoing global change jeopardises the future viability of octocoral assemblages.

 

The implications of ocean acidification are acute for calcifying organisms, notably tropical reef corals, for which accretion generally is depressed and dissolution enhanced at reduced seawater pH. We describe year‐long experiments in which back reef and fore reef (17‐m depth) communities from Moorea, French Polynesia, were incubated outdoors under pCO₂regimes reflecting endpoints of representative concentration pathways (RCPs) expected by the end the century. Incubations were completed in three to four flumes (5.0 × 0.3 m, 500 L) in which seawater was refreshed and circulated at 0.1 m s⁻¹, and the response of the communities was evaluated monthly by measurements of net community calcification (NCC) and net community productivity (NCP). For both communities, NCC (but not NCP) was affected by treatments and time, with NCC declining with increasing pCO₂, and for the fore reef, becoming negative (i.e., dissolution was occurring) at the highest pCO₂(1067–1433μatm, RCP8.5). There was scant evidence of community adjustment to reduce the negative effects of ocean acidification, and inhibition of NCC intensified in the back reef as the abundance of massivePoritesspp. declined. These results highlight the risks of dissolution under ocean acidification for coral reefs and suggest these effects will be most acute in fore reef habitats. Without signs of amelioration of the negative effects of ocean acidification during year‐long experiments, it is reasonable to expect that the future of coral reefs in acidic seas can be predicted from their current known susceptibility to ocean acidification.

 

Coral recruitment describes the addition of new individuals to populations, and it is one of the most fundamental demographic processes contributing to population size. As many coral reefs around the world have experienced large declines in coral cover and abundance, there has been great interest in understanding the factors causing coral recruitment to vary and the conditions under which it can support community resilience. While progress in these areas is being facilitated by technological and scientific advances, one of the best tools to quantify recruitment remains the humble settlement tile, variants of which have been in use for over a century. Here I review the biology and ecology of coral recruits and the recruitment process, largely as resolved through the use of settlement tiles, by: (i) defining how the terms ‘recruit’ and ‘recruitment’ have been used, and explaining why loose terminology has impeded scientific advancement; (ii) describing how coral recruitment is measured and why settlement tiles have value for this purpose; (iii) summarizing previous efforts to review quantitative analyses of coral recruitment; (iv) describing advances from hypothesis‐driven studies in determining how refuges, seawater flow, and grazers can modulate coral recruitment; (v) reviewing the biology of small corals (i.e. recruits) to understand better how they respond to environmental conditions; and (vi) updating a quantitative compilation of coral recruitment studies extending from 1974 to present, thus revealing long‐term global declines in density of recruits, juxtaposed with apparent resilience to coral bleaching. Finally, I review future directions in the study of coral recruitment, and highlight the need to expand studies to deliver taxonomic resolution, and explain why time series of settlement tile deployments are likely to remain pivotal in quantifying coral recruitment.

 

In 1983 to 1984, a mass mortality event caused a Caribbean-wide, >95% population reduction of the echinoid grazer, Diadema antillarum . This led to blooms of algae contributing to the devastation of scleractinian coral populations. Since then, D. antillarum exhibited only limited and patchy population recovery in shallow water, and in 2022 was struck by a second mass mortality reported over many reef localities in the Caribbean. Half-a-century time-series analyses of populations of this sea urchin from St. John, US Virgin Islands, reveal that the 2022 event has reduced population densities by 98.00% compared to 2021, and by 99.96% compared to 1983. In 2021, coral cover throughout the Caribbean was approaching the lowest values recorded in modern times. However, prior to 2022, locations with small aggregations of D. antillarum produced grazing halos in which weedy corals were able to successfully recruit and become the dominant coral taxa. The 2022 mortality has eliminated these algal-free halos on St. John and perhaps many other regions, thereby increasing the risk that these reefs will further transition into coral-free communities. 

For nearly 50 years, analyses of coral physiology have used small coral fragments (nubbins) to make inferences about larger colonies. However, scaling in corals shows that linear extrapolations from nubbins to whole colonies can be misleading, because polyps in nubbins are divorced of their morphologically complex and physiologically integrated corallum. We tested for the effects of integration among branches in determining size-dependent calcification of the coral Pocillopora spp. under elevated P CO 2 . Area-normalized net calcification was compared between branches (nubbins), aggregates of nubbins (complex morphologies without integration) and whole colonies (physiologically integrated) at 400 versus approximately 1000 µatm P CO 2 . Net calcification was unaffected by P CO 2 , but differed among colony types. Single nubbins grew faster than whole colonies, but when aggregated, nubbins changed calcification to match whole colonies even though they lacked integration among branches. Corallum morphology causes the phenotype of branching corals to differ from the summation of their branches. 

Sessile organisms exploit a life-history strategy in which adults are immobile and their growth position is determined at settlement. The morphological strategy exploited by these organisms has strong selective value, because it can allow beneficial matching of morphology to environmental and biological conditions. In benthic marine environments, a ‘sheet-tree’ morphology is a classic mechanism exploited by select sessile organisms, and milleporine hydrocorals provide one of the best examples of this strategy. Using 30-year analysis of Millepora sp. on the reefs of St. John, US Virgin Islands, I tested for the benefits of a sheet-tree morphology in mediating the ecological success of an important functional group of benthic space holders. The abundance of Millepora sp. chaotically changed from 1992 to 2021 in concert with hurricanes, bleaching and macroalgal crowding. Millepora sp. responded to these disturbances by exploiting their morphological strategy to increase the use of trees when their sheets were compromised by bleaching and spatial competition with macroalgae, and the use of sheets when their trees were broken by storms. Together, these results reveal the selective value of a plastic sheet-tree morphology, which can be exploited by sessile organisms to respond to decadal-scale variation in environmental conditions. 

The severity of marine heatwaves (MHWs) that are increasingly impacting ocean ecosystems, including vulnerable coral reefs, has primarily been assessed using remotely sensed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), without information relevant to heating across ecosystem depths. Here, using a rare combination of SST, high-resolution in-situ temperatures, and sea level anomalies observed over 15 years near Moorea, French Polynesia, we document subsurface MHWs that have been paradoxical in comparison to SST metrics and associated with unexpected coral bleaching across depths. Variations in the depth range and severity of MHWs was driven by mesoscale (10s to 100s of km) eddies that altered sea levels and thermocline depths and decreased (2007, 2017 and 2019) or increased (2012, 2015, 2016) internal-wave cooling. Pronounced eddy-induced reductions in internal waves during early 2019 contributed to a prolonged subsurface MHW and unexpectedly severe coral bleaching, with subsequent mortality offsetting almost a decade of coral recovery. Variability in mesoscale eddy fields, and thus thermocline depths, is expected to increase with climate change, which, along with strengthening and deepening stratification, could increase the occurrence of subsurface MHWs over ecosystems historically insulated from surface ocean heating by the cooling effects of internal waves.